Ron Paul’s Just March Out Iraq Exit Strategy Might Just Work

29 08 2007

I am not an expert in Middle East Affairs but I have opinions that are based on my many years of military, intelligence, and executive security work as well as my real world observation for many decades. I think Ron Paul is right in his belief that we just marched in and we should just march out again. I also believe with certainly that the withdrawal strategy should be well thought out by our generals and not by our politicians including Ron Paul. Here are a few of my ideas.

We should make it clear to the Iraqis that just as America had to fight for our liberation from the Crown of England they will need to fight against the Jihadis to retain theirs. They outnumber the Jihadis by a huge factor at this point. We should arm the population with all of the Guns recovered from the insurgency and just back out of there. It would help if we also put a DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) in place at the Iranian border just to assist in their defense but they would have to man it and pay for it.

The Turks are ready on their border with the Kurdish people in the North with a 150,000 man force ready to move in just as soon as we leave so that will have the Kurds pretty busy but that dispute will finally be settled. The border with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait is closest to the Iraqi oil fields and you can bet that the house of Saud would love to fill that power vacuum. The Syrians would likely move to secure their border area and perhaps claim a little of that region as well for a buffer zone.

To be fair since the United States created this situation we should leave some of our navy parked close by and provide air support to the Iraqis as well as providing an air cap with AC-130 gun ships and AWACS support but this should be paid for again with oil revenues or withdrawn. What little air force that Iraq had we pretty much wiped out so it is the right thing to do in my opinion.

I know with a certainly that the neocon chicken hawks in the Bush administration have all of these considerations on the table since my intelligence briefings are likely not as thorough or real time as theirs are. They are considering certain surgical weakening strikes on the strategic and tactical elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard at present that can be deduced from leaks from the administration itself. The likely thinking is that if they significantly weaken these elements that they will be able to withdraw a large number of ground troops without fear that Iran will make the push South until they can rebuild these forces. The delaying action would allow the Bush Administration to have more time to build up the Iraqi army to a level that can face off with Iran’s elite troops.

The flaw in this strategy is that it may well serve to weaken the Iranian’s enough that they will not be able to use conventional forces to move to take over Baghdad but they will no doubt send in streams of suicide bombers into Iraq and wreak havoc on that nation and make it impossible to build a coherent government or military force. They will likely also launch missiles into ships leaving the Straits of Hormuz and effectively close down oil shipping from the Middle East.

I think that the picture is clear that the neocon chicken hawks are not qualified to run this war since they do not have enough strategic insight into the behavior of the people of the Middle East as has been made quite clear to the world at this point. Ron Paul’s on the right track and we will need to reduce our footprint in the region in order to restore some order. If we can draw down our conventional forces at least we will help all friendly nations in the region to reduce the influence of the Imams and their Jihadi rabble and make recruitment much harder for the Jihad. I also feel that we are not doing enough to teach individual responsibility and a love for liberty. That of course is the fault of the Bush regime. We need to export our revolutionary ideas not our force of arms as Ron Paul has pointed out. We should trade with people and be friends and not form alliances with despots for our own convenience as it always seems to have blowback later on. Well that is my 2 cents on the subject.

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